Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 17th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Colts. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, this is the longest post I have written by a large amount. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing.
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Colts’ Passing Defense
Trivia, which QBs finished 2020 Top 5 in all the following categories; Completion %, Pass Yards, Pass TDs, Pass 1st Downs, Pass Y/A, Passer Rating, and QBR? Josh Allen, that’s it, that’s the entire list. Allen’s remarkable season is one that quieted a lot of skeptics in 2020, most of whom were rightly skeptical, and will likely earn him one of the most lucrative contracts in NFL history. The massive improvements by the Bills’ QB were amplified by a dominate group of receivers with unique skill sets. Stefon Diggs is arguably the best all around WR in the NFL right now, Cole Beasley is the best Slot WR in the NFL, John Brown is an oft-overlooked weapon about to be unleashed, Gabe Davis is one of the more promising young offensive weapons in the NFL, and Isaiah McKenzie is a human Swiss Army Knife that consistently expands the box. The Bills have one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the passing attack is the primary reason why.
Against the Colts the Bills’ Pass Offense will need to find a way to deal with an offshoot of the popular Cover 2 scheme. At a high-level Cover 2 is a zone scheme with two deep safeties. In the first few games of the season the Bills rarely saw two deep safety sets with teams testing Josh Allen’s ability to hit the deep ball, but after torching opposing offenses over that span future opposition took note and shifted multiple players deep in order to avoid a barrage of big throws by the Bills. The Colts’ Defensive Coordinator, Matt Eberflus, is an expert of this concept and also a sub concept known as Tampa 2. YouTuber Zach Hicks has a good breakdown of this concept if you want to see it in video format, but at a high level Tampa 2 is the same as a Cover 2 except that on a pass play one of the LBs is generally responsible for the deep middle of the field meaning 3 players are generally protecting against the deep ball. What makes the Colts so proficient at this type of defense is a well-rounded 2nd level that starts with a superstar at LB.
Have you heard of Darius Leonard? If not, you are about to. This “Maniac” was named first team All-Pro his rookie season after being drafted 36th overall by the Colts in the 2018 NFL Draft. Coming into this analysis I had Leonard marked as an incredible run defender with quite possibly the best instincts in the NFL but after watching some film on this guy I realized he is also one of the best zone defending LBs there is. In 2019 Leonard had 5 Interceptions, 4 of which came as the middle zone defender and 1 while man covering an RB. Against the Bills Leonard will be especially dangerous due to his exceptional abilities as a QB spy that when coupled with his instincts and zone coverage capabilities makes him as close to a perfect Josh Allen counter as you will find. This will be the determining factor in whether or not the Colts will be able to slow down the Bills’ vaunted passing attack, slow that down and the Colts will win this running away.
Behind Leonard is a solid stable of DBs, all of whom will provide unique challenges for the Bills. The primary outside corner is former Minnesota Vikings 1st rounder Xavier Rhodes who has built an 8-year career off being an exceptionally physical corner. Rhodes excels most with his hands on a receiver so even in the Colts’ Cover 2 expect him to press the WR lined up in front of him. The other outside position is predominantly controlled by 2nd year CB Rock Ya-Sin but because of an injury he will miss Saturday’s game and be replaced by 30-year old T.J. Carrie. While less talented than Rhodes, Carrie plays a similar style and within the Colts’ defense is playing the best football of his 7-year career. But the most dangerous CB on the Colts’ roster is their slot CB, one of the best in the NFL, Kenny Moore. Moore has exceptional instincts and out of the slot can read his primary responsibility while simultaneously providing help to his outside CBs. The last portion of this secondary are the safeties, Julian Blackmon and Khari Willis, both of whom can force game changing plays in the event any opposing QB tries to test them over the top.
With the key to the Bills’ offense being their ability to move the ball through the air this matchup could ultimately determine the first round of the playoffs. Diggs, Brown, and Davis will all be pressed by outside CBs who they will need to beat if the Bills even want to consider taking a deep shot. In the slot it remains to be seen if Cole Beasley will be good to go, though it is looking promising, but regardless if the slot is him, Stills, McKenzie, or even Roberts all may struggle against Kenny Moore. Brian Daboll will need to come prepared with his best playbook to beat this defense while all the weapons will need to execute if the Bills intend to host another playoff game.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Colts’ Rushing Defense
89 times this season a player has rushed for 100+ yards in a game. Out of the 32 NFL teams only 4 of them did not have such a player, the Panthers, Chargers, Seahawks…and Bills. A stunning turn of events for a Bills’ team that has not finished outside the Top 10 in rushing yards since 2014 has seen them fall to 20th this season averaging just 107.7 Y/G. And don’t blame the shift to a pass first offense as the primary reason for this as the Bills’ rank 19th in Y/A at just 4.2 with their top two RBs, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, at just 4.4 and 4.3 respectively. I’ve wrote about this in past “Matchup Preview” posts, that the issue is best described by the fact that out of the 51 NFL players with 100+ rushing attempts Devin Singletary ranks 49th (1.5) and Zack Moss ranks 43rd (1.8) in Yards Before Contact (YBC). This points to two root causes; RBs not hitting the hole fast enough or poor OL blocking, and while I believe both are part of the problem to me it is the latter that is the predominant issue.
The Colts run a 4-3 scheme meaning in their base package there are 4 DL and 3 LB but with the current state of the NFL most teams “Base” is actually their Nickel Package (1 LB is replaced by a DB). This is important to note in the context of the Bills running the ball because with the Colts predominately in Nickel the Bills may have success running the ball outside the tackles. To help visualize what it will look like picture the package where Tremaine Edmunds is flanked by one of A.J. Klein or Matt Milano. Ultimately this presents a situation where a defense becomes fully reliant on their DEs maintaining contain so that their LBs can scrape down the line and make a play on the ball carrier. In the worst case, where contain is blown and LBs can’t get to the ball carrier, a defenses reliance shifts to their CBs coming off a WR block or a safety coming down field and making a tackle in the open field. The Colts have the players in the secondary to accomplish this which is one reason why they are one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
While this section lends itself to be just another breakdown of Darius Leonard, he was covered in detail in the passing section of this post so instead the the emphasis here is on the Colts’ DL. This is a DL which is headlined by ex-49er, the 2016 #7 overall pick DeForest Buckner. While Buckner primarily excels as a Pass Rusher (9.5 Sacks this Season) he is also a great run defender capable of using his large frame (6’7”, 240lb) and a great stable of moves to wreak havoc against the run. Next to him at Nose Tackle is Grover Stewart the 4th year man out of Albany State. Stewart plays and looks more massive than his 315lb listing and is meant to be a plug in the middle that takes up 2 interior linemen. On the outside is a 4-man rotation (In order of Snap %) of Denico Autry, Justin Houston, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and Tyquan Lewis. Autry and Houston are vets that primarily rush the passer while Muhammad and Lewis excel more against the run. Yet, the more you look at this DL and their rotations the more you come to realize it is eerily similar to the Bills, albeit a more successful version against the run.
Running the ball against the Colts will be a tough task for this Bills’ team as the Colts rank 2nd in the NFL in Rush Y/A Against (3.7) while playing the likes of Dalvin Cook, the Ravens, Derrick Henry (x2), and Josh Jacobs. Most the of praise is owed to Leonard, and MLB Anthony Walker, but the whole of the defense is a highly disciplined unit that consistently does their 1/11th in order to dominate the defensive side of the ball. The one area where the Bills may be able to expose the Colts is via a run that is technically a pass, the McKenzie “Push Pass”. I expect this play to be run multiple times on Saturday and if I were to set an OveUnder on it I’d give out 2.5. Running this to the opposite side of Buckner should find success and if it does should slow down the outside pass rush of the Colts.
EDGE: Colts 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Colts’ Passing Offense
Coming into this analysis I hypothesized that a reason for the Bills’ struggles against the pass was that teams were throwing against the Bills far more in 2020 than they had in previous seasons. After all, the Bills’ offense was so prolific this season that more often than in a long-time, teams were playing from behind against the Bills. Turns out the 573 Passing Attempts against the Bills this season was only 20 more than the 553 from 2019 and remarkably the same number of pass attempts against as 2017. Digging deeper I found that even though the Bills had given up the same number of 300 yard passing games in 2020 (5) that they had from 2017 to 2019 their Passer Rating against was not drastically different. In fact their passer ratings against over the past 4 seasons were; 78.9 (2017), 82.6 (2018), 78.8 (2019), and 86.9 (2020) while the league wide Passer Rating over the same span followed a similar trend being 86.9 (2017), 92.9 (2018), 90.4 (2019), and 93.6 (2020). Turns out the Bills’ pass defense didn’t really regress all too much and in fact is still one of the most dominant units in the NFL, peaking at the perfect time.
And in the first round of the playoffs the Bills will play a team which I describe as a Run First team that really likes to throw the ball. What does that mean exactly? The Colts did run the ball (459) less than they passed (552) so doesn’t that make them a pass first team? Technically yes, but with only 371 of those passes being completed and 114 of those going to RBs the Colts either ran or had an RB touch the ball on an astounding 69% of “completed” offensive plays. For context the leading rusher in the NFL was Derrick Henry of the Titans where they ran or had an RB touch the ball on just 66.8% of those plays. Moral of this all is exactly what was stated, Run First but love to pass, but make no mistake about it, when the Colts need to air the ball out, they do have some weapons to do so.
The Colts have 3 good WRs and 3 solid TEs giving them high level depth in the passing game. By now every NFL fan knows T.Y. Hilton who has been one of the best deep threats in the NFL for just under a decade and though 31 still put up over 750 yards with a 13.6 Y/R in 2020. Opposite him is Zach Pascal who is in the 3rd year of his career and while unlike T.Y. in stature, coming in at 6’2” 215lb, is like him in that he is primarily a deep threat at this point in his career. The last WR of note is by far the most intriguing, 2nd round rookie Michael Pittman Jr. A player that was at times mocked to the Bills, Pittman is a massive receiver at 6’4” 225lb and has 4.5s 40yd speed. At moments he has looked unguardable for the Colts in 2020 but has a long way to go to reach his full potential, though he seems fully capable of it. At TE the Colts’ 3-man rotation is Jack Doyle, Mo Allie-Cox, and Trey Burton. Each of them is 6’2” 230lb or bigger and have at least 20 receptions with the 3 of them accounting for a total of 82 catches. These guys aren’t’ just redzone threats either, though they do account for 8 TDs, they are also big-time weapons in the middle of the field moving the sticks a combined 46 times.
Throwing all those guys the ball will be the walking HOF-litmus test, Phillip Rivers. At 39 years old he has without a doubt lost a bit of zip on his throws but still was able to put up over 4000 passing yards and complete 68% of his passes. One very interesting stat of note is that Rivers, and the Colts, has only played 3 outdoor games north of Tennessee this season. In those games Rivers completed 60.4% of his passes, had a 2:3 TD:INT Ratio, and a passer rating of 81.2. In all other games Rivers completed 69.6% of his passes, had a 22:8 TD:INT Ratio, and a passer rating of 100.4. Needless to say the weather in Buffalo will have a major impact on the outcome of the game Saturday but if you don’t think Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and the rest of the Bills’ secondary will also have an impact, well…just wait.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Colts’ Rushing Offense
The Buffalo Bills’ ability to stop the run will ultimately be the reason they have a successful or unsuccessful playoff run. If you believe in Dualism the Buffalo Bills’ run defense should improve your ability to debate it. The Bills have had 8 (5-3) games where the opponent rushed for 100+ yards, for an average of 167.6, and 8 (8-0) games where the opponent has rushed for under 100 yards, for an average of 71.6 Y/G. The crazy thing about this is that there is no tangible pattern, not competition, not location of game, not injuries, the Bills are simply just really good or really bad against the run. This week they can’t afford to be bad against it.
To fully understand just how integral RBs are to the Colts’ offense see the analysis of their Pass Offense above. This Colts’ team by all measures had 4 solid RBs rostered going into the start of the 2020 season with Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins but when Mack popped his ACL in Week 1 the Colts were forced to scramble. Over the next few weeks, they would rely most on rookie Jonathan Taylor to carry the load on the ground but saw mixed results. By Week 8 Wilkins was out carrying Taylor and by Week 10 both Wilkins and Hines were. And then something happened, and this something happened to the Colts’ play calls and to Taylor who quickly shifted into the monster from Wisconsin. Over his final 6 games Taylor rushed 119 times (19.8 G) for 741 (123.5 Y/G) which is a Y/A of 6.2. At the end of the day Taylor is who a lot of draft experts thought he would be, a dominant all around back that can single handedly change games. Don’t get it twisted though Bills Mafia, Nyheim Hines will also play an integral role for the Colts’ offense on Saturday.
But the talent at RB is one thing, the talent on the OL is a whole different monster. Working from right to left this week at RT is Braden Smith a 2nd round pick that has been a 3-year starter for the Colts. Smith is a freak of a human at 6’6” 315lb giving him the ability to toss opposing defenders around at will though the one knock on him is his slow dissection of incoming blitzes. At RG is Mark Glowinski a 6-year vet who like Braden Smith has power to spare but lacks elite quickness, yet he still exceeds the description of proficient RG. Then there are the big boys. At Center is Ryan Kelly who just earned his 2nd consecutive Pro Bowl nod as one of the best Centers in the NFL. An incredible blocking center and a master of dissecting opposing defenses Ryan Kelly is not only himself great, but he also makes the QB under him and the OL to the left and right of him better every single play. LG Quenton Nelson. 3 years into his career, 3 Pro Bowls, 2 All-Pros (and possibly a 3rd on the way), is it absurd to call a player a HOF 3 years into his career? Not for Nelson. This kid is a monstrosity that will control not only who is in front of him, but he will throw that man back into an LB like they are a rag doll. So, the Colts have 4 good to incredible OL, until we get to their LT. Starting LT Anthony Castonzo hit IR after an ankle injury in practice on Christmas Eve and was replaced by retired Jared Veldheer against the Jaguars. This is the only question mark for the Colts’ OL but if Veldheer can even play at 75% of his pre-retirement level he should provide suitable protection on the left side of the line.
The old adage is control the trenches and you control the game. While I 100% agree with that statement I don’t think that is the key to this matchup. Whatever the Bills’ DL looks like this week will obviously need to do their job up front and make a play or two, and I’m especially excited to see what Ed Oliver and A.J. Epenesa will do this week. For me though, the LBs and Jordan Poyer are the entire key to this matchup. I fully expect Poyer in the box more often this game than we have seen all season allowing the Bills to put their Best Big Nickel (Foot) forward. Stop the run in whatever way you can and force Rivers to beat you through the air means the Bills will be stunting at whatever gap they can to force the young Taylor to try to bounce to an opening. For me this game will not determine my feelings on Tremaine Edmunds but will go a long way in deciding his future. Edmunds must make multiple big plays this week, and if he does, I’d fully expect McDermott to hand him the game ball regardless of how the offense plays.
EDGE: Colts 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Colts’ Special Teams
It is officially no longer hyperbole to say that the Buffalo Bills have the best Special Teams group in the NFL. The Bills’ primary return man, Andre Roberts (Pro Bowl, #1-NFL Kick Y/R, #7-NFL Punt Y/R) got a rest on Sunday resulting in backup return man, Isaiah McKenzie, bringing a punt 84 yards to the house for the Bills. That was the Bills first Punt Return TD since Marcus Thigpen did so on December 14, 2014. At Punter is the Bills’ second most improved player of 2020, Corey Bojorquez. Of punters who played all 16 games Bojo finished with the least punts (41) but lead the league in Punt Average (50.8), had the longest punt in the NFL (72), and finished 5th in Net Punt Average (44.0). Outside of one bad punt against the Cardinals, Bojo had just about as good as season as a punter can have. Last is the single season record holder for Points by a Buffalo Bills’ player, rookie Kicker Tyler Bass. Bass drilled 57 of 59 PATs (Possibly 58) and 28 of 34 FGs finishing the season with 141 points. It is also worth noting that the Bills finished 7th in the NFL in Opponent Average Drive Start (Own 26.6) primarily because of Bass’ ability to control the location of his high arced kicks resulting in the NFL’s second-best Kick Y/R Against (17.9). Bass is just another weapon on a team filled with them.
The Colts also have one of the better special teams’ groups in the NFL. The Colts go about returns differently than the Bills using one player primarily for Kicks and another primarily for Punts. Handling Kick Returns is 2020 6th round pick Isaiah Rodgers who is averaging 28.8 Y/R which includes a 101-yard return for a TD in Week 5. Small in stature at 5’10, 170lb Rodgers has barn burning speed (4.28 40yd) and has the ability to return kicks for big yardage which may alter the Bills’ “Short-Kick” strategy on Saturday. Handling Punts is dynamic RB Nyheim Hines who has a Y/R of 10.0 and a long of just 26 implying consistent positive gains on Punt Returns. Punting for the Colts is Rigoberto Sanchez, who also handles kickoffs, ranks 14th in Punt Average (46.2) and 19th in Punt Net Average (40.0) giving up just 7.5 Y/R. At kicker for the Colts is another rookie, Rodrigo Blankenship. Blankenship is having a similar season to Bass missing just 5 FGs and 2 XPs but looks to be a kicker that will spend a long time in the NFL.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Colts matchup surprisingly well against the Buffalo Bills, probably more so than they would have against any other team in the AFC playoffs, outside of maybe the Browns. On defense the Colts should without a doubt stop the Bills’ RBs from moving the ball on the ground which means the Bills’ ability to score points will come down to how often Josh Allen and the Bills’ receivers can beat the Colts’ secondary. More importantly for the Colts is how many turnovers their defense, which ranks 5th in Takeaways, can force. With the way that Josh Allen and the Bills are playing right now it seems the only way to beat them is to take the ball away from them and keep it away, the Colts can do that.
On offense the matchup is even better for the Colts. The Bills struggle against the run and while they have at times shown the ability to successfully defend against it their inconsistency will be a problem against one of the hottest RBs in the NFL, Jonathan Taylor. Colts’ fans know that they will be getting some yardage on the ground and while how much, and how many TDs, remains to be seen the consistent movement of the ball in this fashion is paramount. If successful, the Colts will take time off the clock and keep the ball away from Josh Allen. In the event the Colts must throw the ball they will likely be testing the Bills’ LBs with throws to their TEs and RBs allowing them to avoid the Bills’ highly talented secondary. All of this spells points for Indy, less time for the Bills’ offense, and the possibility of stealing this game in Buffalo.
Why We Will Win
Talk about broken records? “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team” Saturday. How many times did we get to say that in 2020? On offense it really hasn’t mattered the talent level of the defense in front of the Bills; Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, Lee Smith, Reggie Gilliam…Ok I’ll stop but they have all shredded opposition through the air. And let’s not forget the RBs, sure the Bills have struggled on the ground this season but have flashed big play potential with both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them has another Saturday. This offense will put up points regardless of who is on the other side of the ball and have proven that time in time again this season.
On defense here is the deal, the Bills should completely stymie Phillip Rivers in the cold air of Buffalo. When I say “stymie”, I mean that when he must throw the Bills should be all over the ball and if he tries to fit one in a tight window take it away. I’ll put money on it that the Bills have at least one interception Saturday and might even drop the same bet on two because the Colts will HAVE to throw the ball. When they can avoid throwing, they will run and run again which is something Bills’ fans should be fearful of. But remember those 6 games where Jonathan Taylor had success which we discussed in the Colts’ Rushing Offense section of this post? The 6 defenses he played over that span ranked 18th (GNB), 30th (HOU), 28th (LVR), 30th (HOU), 5th (PIT), and 24th (JAX) by Run Defense DVOA. The Buffalo Bills rank better than all but one of those teams coming in at 17. This is the Bills’ game to win.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Colts 20
When the Bills made the playoffs last season, I predicted they would win the game, and they should have. But that team was different than this one. This team isn’t coming to the playoffs to win just one game, this team is angry, this team is afraid of no one, and they are the hottest team in the NFL. This year there’s no “Foot off the pedal”, there’s no “Worrying about Common Sense”, there’s no Overtime. There’s just a Buffalo Bills’ team that wants much more than a “Fine and Dandy” hat and shirt. Your Buffalo Bills are coming for everyone and everything and it all starts on Saturday with 6700 fans greeting them in a stadium that will sound like it has 100,000 in it. Paraphrasing the great Steve Tasker, buckle up Colts, “It might be Chilly”.
EDIT 1: Corrected Titans to Colts in Bills Rushing Offense section (Thank you some_random_noob)

[Game Preview] Week 12 - Philadelphia Eagles(3-6-1) vs Seattle Seahawks (7-3)

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1) vs Seattle Seahawks(7-3)
Another week has passed and the Eagles notched another in the loss column, the saving grace now is after the Football Team won on Thanksgiving the Eagles are no longer kings of shit mountain. That title rests with Washington, though it could end up in the hands of the Giants by the team the Eagles kickoff on Monday night. Pathetically they could take that title back with a win over the Seahawks, though that appears to be unlikely. The Seahawks pack a potent offense led by All-Pro QB Russel Wilson who has made Jim Schwartz is bitch the past 4 years. What this Eagles team has in talent it completely lacks in discipline, heart and accountability which rests entirely on this coaching staff which repeatedly fails to get this team motivated and put them in the best position to win football games. Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the league especially against the pass, however I doubt Doug Pederson will come up with a game plan to exploit it, especially with Carson Wentz struggling to find any rhythm this season and leading the league in all the wrong categories. Both the coach and the QB will need to find some of that magic from the 2017 season if they have any hope of beating this tough Seahawks team Monday night.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1) vs Seattle Seahawks(7-3)

Another week has passed and the Eagles notched another in the loss column, the saving grace now is after the Football Team won on Thanksgiving the Eagles are no longer kings of shit mountain. That title rests with Washington, though it could end up in the hands of the Giants by the team the Eagles kickoff on Monday night. Pathetically they could take that title back with a win over the Seahawks, though that appears to be unlikely. The Seahawks pack a potent offense led by All-Pro QB Russel Wilson who has made Jim Schwartz is bitch the past 4 years. What this Eagles team has in talent it completely lacks in discipline, heart and accountability which rests entirely on this coaching staff which repeatedly fails to get this team motivated and put them in the best position to win football games. Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the league especially against the pass, however I doubt Doug Pederson will come up with a game plan to exploit it, especially with Carson Wentz struggling to find any rhythm this season and leading the league in all the wrong categories. Both the coach and the QB will need to find some of that magic from the 2017 season if they have any hope of beating this tough Seahawks team Monday night.

General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to Join us on Discord during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest

Date
Monday, November 30th, 2020

Game Time	Game Location
8:15 PM - Eastern	Lincoln Financial Field
7:15 PM - Central	1020 Pattison Ave
6:15 PM - Mountain	Philadelphia, PA 19148
5:15 PM - Pacific	Wikipedia - Map

Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 64°F
Feels Like: 64°F
Forecast: Possible Light Rain. Rain throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 56%
Cloud Coverage: 97%
Wind: South 13 MPH

Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Seattle -5.5
OveUnder: 49
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 3-7, Seahawks 6-4

Where to Watch on TV
ESPN will broadcast Monday’s game to a national audience. Steve Levy will handle play-by-play duties and Brian Griese will provide analysis.
Week 12 TV Map

Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming

Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	WIP-FM	94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA	WCTO-FM	96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey	WENJ-FM	97.3 FM
Levittown, PA	WBCB-AM	1490 AM
Northumberland, PA	WEGH-FM	107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA	WPPA-AM	1360 AM
Reading, PA	WEEU-AM	830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA	WEJL-FM	96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WEJL-AM	630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WBAX-AM	1240 AM
Williamsport, PA	WBZD-FM	93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE	WDEL-FM/AM	101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA	WSOX-FM	96.1 FM

Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	LA MEGA	105.7 FM
Allentown, PA	WSAN	1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ	WIBG	1020 AM; 101.3 FM

Seahawks Radio
Seahawks Radio Network Steve Raible returns for his 38th season in the radio booth, his 15th as the play-by-play announcer and “Voice of the Seahawks” after 22 seasons as the Seahawks analyst. Former Seahawks LB Dave Wyman will provide color commentary.

National Radio
Westwood One will broadcast the game to a national audience with Kevin Harlan on play-by-play and Ron Jaworski providing analysis.

Satellite Radio

Station	Eagles Channel	Seahawks Channel
Sirius Radio	SIRI 83	SIRI 81
XM Radio	XM 225	XM 226
Sirius XM Radio	SXM 225 4	SXM 226

Eagles Social Media	Seahawks Social Media
Website	Website
Facebook	Facebook
Twitter	Twitter
Instagram	Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles	Snapchat: Seahawks

NFC East Standings

NFC EAST	Record	PCT	Home	Road	Div	Conf	PF	PA	Net Pts	Streak
Football Team	4-7	.364	3-3	1-4	3-2	3-5	241	243	-2	1W
Eagles	3-6-1	.350	2-2-1	1-4	2-2	3-3	220	254	-34	2L
Giants	3-7	.300	2-3	1-4	3-2	3-6	195	236	-41	2W
Cowboys	3-8	.273	2-4	1-4	1-3	3-6	251	359	-108	1L

Series Information
The Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (11-7)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
December 12th, 1976 at Veteran's Stadium Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia Eagles 27 - Seattle Seahawks 10
Points Leader
Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (367-327)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0-4 against the Seahawks
Pete Carroll: 6-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Pete Carroll: Carroll leads 4-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Seahawks: 0-4
Russell Wilson: Against Eagles: 5-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Russell Wilson: Wilson leads 4-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Seahawks lead the Eagles: 5-0
Record @ CenturyLink Field: Seahawks lead 3-2

Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 11 - Seahawks No. 7
Record
Eagles: 3-6-1
Seahawks: 7-3
Last Meeting
Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019
Seahawks 17 – Eagles 9
The Eagles season ended with their first loss at home since Week 12 of the regular season, which was, coincidentally, also a 17–9 home loss to the Seahawks. They failed to score a touchdown for the first time since Week 17 of the 2017 season. Carson Wentz left the game in the first quarter with a concussion following a dirty hit by Jadeveon Clowney, where he led with the crown of his helmet into the back of Carson Wentz’s head when he was already going to the ground. No penalty was called on the play, and Wentz was later ruled out for the game. This was the Eagles' third straight home Wild Card playoff loss.
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Last 10 Meetings

Date	Winner	Loser	Score
01/05/20	Seahawks	Eagles	17-9
11/24/19	Seahawks	Eagles	17-9
12/3/17	Seahawks	Eagles	24-10
11/20/16	Seahawks	Eagles	26-15
12/07/14	Seahawks	Eagles	24-14
12/01/11	Seahawks	Eagles	31-14
11/02/08	Eagles	Seahawks	26-7
12/02/07	Seahawks	Eagles	28-24
12/05/05	Seahawks	Eagles	42-0
12/08/02	Eagles	Seahawks	27-20
09/23/01	Eagles	Seahawks	27-3

Injury Reports	Depth Charts
Eagles	Eagles
Seahawks	Seahawks

2012 “Expert” Picks
Week 12 - "Expert" Picks

2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Seahawks Season Stats

2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)

Passing

Name	CMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Wentz	220	377	58.4%	2326	14	14	73.3
Wilson	256	362	70.7%	2986	30	10	111.5

Rushing

Name	ATT	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Sanders	102	585	83.6	5.7	3
Wilson	55	367	36.7	4.7	1

Receiving

Name	REC	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Fulgham	31	451	64.4	14.5	4
Metcalf	48	862	86.2	18.0	9

Sacks

Name	Sacks	Team Total
Graham	7.0	34
Adams	5.5	25

Tackles

Name	Total	Solo	Assist	Sacks
Singleton	60	37	23	1.0
Wagner	96	56	40	3.0

Interceptions

Name	Ints	Team Total
Singleton/McLeod/Mills	1	3
Diggs/Neal/Griffin	2	10

Punting

Name	ATT	YDS	LONG	AVG	NET	IN 20	TB	BP
Johnston	45	2198	66	48.6	42.3	15	4	0
Dickson	37	1835	67	49.6	44.1	19	4	0

Kicking

Name	ATT	MADE	%	LONG	PAT
Elliot	14	10	71.4%	54	14/14
Myers	12	12	100%	61	36/38

Kick Returns

Name	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Scott	12	227	18.9	25	0
Homer	12	291	24.3	44	0

Punt Returns

Name	RET	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	FC
Ward	13	88	6.8	22	0	13
Moore	8	91	11.4	20	0	12

League Rankings 2020

Offense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Seahawks Stat	Seahawks Rank
Total Offense	330.1	26th	400.0	4th
Rush Offense	121.1	12th	121.3	10th(t)
Pass Offense	209.0	28th	278.7	5th
Points Per Game	22.0	24th	31.8	2nd
3rd-Down Offense	37.5%	28th(t)	41.2%	18th
4th-Down Offense	36.8%	27th(t)	77.8%	3rd(t)
Red Zone Offense (TD%)	63.3%	13th	77.8%	2nd

Defense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Seahawks Stat	Seahawks Rank
Total Defence	342.7	10th	434.9	32nd
Rush Defence	133.4	25th	91.2	4th
Pass Defence	209.3	6th	343.7	32nd
Points Per Game	25.4	16th	28.7	28th
3rd-Down Defence	38.1%	6th	49.6%	30th
4th-Down Defence	41.7%	5th(t)	56.3%	18th
Red Zone Defence(TD%)	65.6%	T-19th	70.0%	28th

Team

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Seahawks Stat	Seahawks Rank
Turnover Diff.	-9	30th	+1	12th(t)
Penalty Per Game	6.1	21st(t)	5.3	6th(t)
Penalty Yards Per Game	48.2	14th	39.2	4th

Connections
Eagles HC Doug Pederson was born in Bellingham, WA, and grew up in Ferndale, WA. Pederson recently admitted that he "Grew up a Seahawks Fan" and used to attend Seahawks games at The Kingdome.
Eagles LBs coach Ken Flajole is from Seattle and previously coached the Seahawks’ DBs (1999, 2001-02) and LBs (2000).
Eagles Safeties coach Tim Hauck played for the Seahawks in 1997.
Seahawks Northeast Area Scout Todd Brunner worked for the Eagles for four seasons (1994-97) as an area scout covering the Northeast. He joined the Eagles as a scouting intern in 1992 and worked as a scouting assistant in 1993.

2020 Pro Bowlers

Eagles	Seahawks
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)	QB Russel Wilson (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)	MLB Bobby Wagner (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)

General
Referee: Brad Allen
Philadelphia hosts Seattle for the first time since the 2019 NFC Wild Card playoff game. The Eagles are aiming for their third con-secutive win at Lincoln Financial Field after defeating N.Y. Giants (W, 22-21) and Dallas (W, 23-9) during Weeks 7-8.
Miles Sanders leads the NFL with 5.7 yards per rushing attempt (min. 100 attempts). His 83.6 rushing yards per game rank 4th in the NFL, trailing only Dalvin Cook (118.8), Derrick Henry (107.9) and Nick Chubb (95.8) in that category.
Jason Kelce has started 99 consectuive regular-season games, which is the longest active streak among NFL centers as well as the longest by an Eagles center since the 1970 merger (previously 95 by Guy Morriss from 1977-83). The last NFL center with 100 consecutive starts was Chris Myers from 2007-14 (123).
Brandon Graham leads the Eagles defense with 7.0 sacks, which ranks 9th among NFL players. Graham (11 TFLs) joins T.J. Watt (9.0, sacks, 14 TFLs) and Za’Darius Smith (8.0 sacks, 10 TFLs) as the only NFL players with 7.0+ sacks and 10+ TFLs this season.

Draft Picks

Eagles	Seahawks
WR Jalen Raegor	LB Jordyn Brooks
QB Jalen Hurts	DE Darrell Taylor
LB Davion Taylor	OG Damien Lewis
S K’Von Wallace	TE Colby Parkinson
OT Jack Driscoll	RB Deejay Dallas
WR John Hightower	DE Alton Robinson
LB Shaun Bradley	WR Freddie Swan
WR Quez Watkins	TE/WR Stephen Sullivan
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill

Notable Off-season Additions

Eagles	Seahawks
S Will Parks	S Jamal Adams
DT Javon Hargrave	OT Cedric Ogbuehi
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman	RB Carlos Hyde
CB Darius Slay	RT Brandon Shell
	DE Carlos Dunlap
	DE Benson Mayowa
	WR Phillip Dorsett
	DT Bruce Irvin
	TE Greg Olsen
	CB Quinton Dunbar

Notable Off-season Departures

Eagles	Seahawks
S Malcom Jenkins	S Bradley McDonald
CB Ronald Darby	DE Jadaveon Clowney
RB Jordan Howard	OT George Fant
WR Nelson Agholor	DL Quiton Jefferson
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai	DL Al Woods
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill	OL Germain Ifedi
RB Darren Sproles	DE Ziggy Ansah
DT Timmy Jernigan	LB Mychal Kendricks
LB Nigel Bradham

Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (109) needs 1 passing TDs to take sole possession of 4th on the Eagles all-time passing yards list moving ahead of QB Norm Snead.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (52.5) needs 2 sacks to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown

Stats to Know

Stat to Know: Bird is the Word

The average Bald Eagle's wingspan is considerably more than an Osprey's. The weight disparity between the two is even more pronounced, the male Bald Eagle doubling its counterpart's weight. So whereas Bald Eagles are known to harass Osprey nests and even steal Ospreys' food directly from them, this Philadelphia Eagles team is anything but average and is an embarrassment in the turnover department, currently third-to-last in turnover margin at -9, while the Seahawks are middle-of-the-pack at +1. A Bald Eagle is expected to be large, strong, agile, pesky, and majestic. The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles field 2 Cornerbacks 5'9 and under, they field undersized Linebackers and Safeties, and don't have a bruising Running Back to feature. They have been incapable of imposing their will on Offense or Defense. The only consistency shown in 2020 is in just how bad the team is, while still on top of the division. Some mornings I stare into the foggy mirror, with Lionel Richie's "Hello" playing on my Google speaker, and wonder what we've done to deserve this. Sad Eagles

Matchups to Watch
Russel Wilson vs. the Eagles Run Defense
This Eagles team has been woefully pathetic against the run this season, but even more so against opposing QBs who are not afraid to take off. Of the top 5 rushing performances against the Eagles defense this season 3 of them are QBs (Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones 2x). Russell Wilson may turn 32 Sunday, but he is still a threat with his legs as he currently leads the Seahawks in rushing yards and is on pace for his second biggest rushing season in his career. Jim Schwartz has had zero answer the past 4 years against Russel Wilson and I don’t expect that to magically change on Monday. Schwartz best bet may be to spy Wilson with Rookie Davion Taylor, who has the athletic ability to keep up with Wilson, however Schwartz has failed to used spies on Wilson in the past, so if he makes a change in how it operates it will be a large evolution in his character which doesn’t seem realistic. I expect much of the same with Schwartz against Wilson on Monday, base Nickel defense with Cover-1 man and the corners playing 10 yards off to give easy outlets to Wilson.
A Moveable Object vs a Stoppable Force
If Philly wants to have any chance to win on Monday they are going to need to score points on the offensive side of the football, something they have failed to do regularly this season. Carson Wentz has been one of if not the worst QB in the NFL this season, at least the worst who hasn’t been benched yet. He has been a turn over machine and has been sacked the most in the NFL. But the offensive woes don’t lay solely at his feet, Doug Pederson has done Wentz no favors. Despite Wentz’s struggles Pederson has continued to lead on the QB, despite having one of the best running backs in the league who is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has big play potential in Miles Sanders. It isn’t just that Pederson is abandoning the run, he is also calling a bland predictable offense which has failed to put his players in the best position to succeed. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks have had issues stopping anyone this season, especially through the air where they rank dead last. They have given up an average of 343.7 yards per game. In recent weeks, they’ve been better in this area. They have given up over 300 passing yards just once in the last four games. If the Eagles have any shot to win Sunday, they need to win this matchup.
Carlos Dunlap vs Jordan Mailata
After Jason Peters gave up 3 sacks, 3 QB hits and 7 pressures in just 47 snaps before leaving the last game with an injury, he's thankfully moving to right guard somewhere he should have been after returning from the IR. This means Mailata will be back at LT where he was playing well before being benched for Peters return. He will face off against Carlos Dunlap who has 3 sacks in 3 games since joining the Seahawks. This is going to be the second time the Eagles faced Dunlap who in Week 3, had 4 pressures, 9 tackles, a QB hit, a TFL and a batted pass when facing Peters. If Mailata can play the way he was before he was wrongly benched by this inept coaching staff. Suring up Wentz’s backside should give him a little more confidence, something he has woefully lacked this season. This should be a good matchup against the young Mailata and the ageless vet in Dunlap.

Special thanks to abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.

Remember DKNG?? That meme stock from ages ago?? Well, get ready for the second coming of the meme. DKNG is my favorite reopening play.

I put a clone of 17-year-old CC Sabathia on all 30 MLB teams in 1998 and simmed their careers

A few months back, I took a 17-year-old prospect, put a copy of him on every team in the league, and simmed for a few decades to see how he would perform given the various team environments. You can see the results of that experiment here:
https://www.reddit.com/OOTP/comments/ijivv3/i_put_a_clone_of_a_17yearold_prospect_on_all_30/
I decided to repeat the experiment using a pitcher. This time, I wanted to do things a little differently. Instead of starting in 2020, I wanted to use a historical player, though one who played pretty recently and completed his real-life career. I also wanted him to be durable, since the kid I had in my other sim was Fragile or Wrecked for most of his career.
I found the perfect candidate in Carsten Charles Sabathia. Welcome to the CClone League.
https://i.imgur.com/Yt03qHi.jpg
As an added bonus, CC's career started in 1998, just as the last two expansion teams were getting underway, so I'll be able to include him on all 30 MLB teams without having to worry about adding him to expansion teams.
As before, I'll assign a middle name to each version of CC based on the team he started with (CC Indian Sabathia, CC Ranger Sabathia, etc.) for my save, and refer to them just by those names, even if they change teams. I also used the OOTP engine for development, rather than historical development, to provide maximum variety.
One last note before we begin: After my last sim, someone suggested I use perfect scouting accuracy. I have that enabled and even at the start of the sim, about 1/3 of the CCs are 1/4.5 current/potential, while the rest are 0.5/4. Not sure what that means.
With that out of the way, here we go!
1998: The first news I got was on June 1, where both Giant and Devil Ray were named Pitchers of the Month in their respective leagues.
As for his supposed durability, three CCs were on the injured list at the end of the season, with the worst luck going to Oriole, who suffered a torn meniscus on June 19, costing him the rest of his season. The original CC, Indian, also had his season cut short, as a torn labrum suffered on Aug. 11 would require seven months of recovery time.
Here's how everyone's stats stacked up at the end of the season:
https://i.imgur.com/bY1esrW.jpg
Met is clearly the early leader, with a 4.2 WAR and 2.86 ERA in 160.2 IP. On the other end of the spectrum, we have Blue Jay, who went 130.2 IP – not bad! – but with a 5.10 ERA and bottomed-out 0.4 WAR.
Also, this being 1998, I thought I should mention that Juan Gonzalez led the Majors with 59 HR. Mark McGwire hit 42, while Samma Sosa played in just 77 games, missing six weeks with an injury, and went deep 21 times. Expansion teams Tampa Bay and Arizona won 76 and 78 games, respectively. Meanwhile, Milwaukee made the most of its first year in the National League, beating Seattle in six games to win the World Series.
1999: On Opening Day, one CC (Angel) was assigned to AAA and seven to AA. Four of them – Diamondback, Expo, Athletic, and Indian – were all the way down in D/E ball.
After just one month and four AAA starts, Angel was called up to the big-league team and made his first start on May 3, 1999 at the age of 18 years and 316 days. He was rocked to the tune of 7 H, 3 BB, and 5 ER allowed in 4.2 IP, taking the loss in an 11-3 loss against the White Sox. On the bright side, he did strike out seven.
https://i.imgur.com/V6Pysv2.jpg
On May 11, Cub suffered a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, diagnosed as an 11-12 month injury. On May 18, Giant got suspended for a fight with someone named John Novak. The tale of the tape: Sabathia at 6'7”, 285 lbs., Novak at 6'1”, 215 lbs. I know who I'd bet on. Red Sock fired a no-hitter in AA ball on July 2.
Two weeks before the trade deadline, in July 18, Indian was traded to the Angels, along with two other prospects, for Mike Bordick. So now the Angels have both the first CC to make the Majors, and the original CC.
Angel finished the season with 98 IP and an unsightly 7.07 ERA and -0.5 WAR, as well as a partially torn labrum that mercifully ended his season on September 25. White Sock was the second CC to make his MLB debut, tossing 3.2 IP in mop-up work in a 22-4 win on August 9 … and promptly suffering shoulder inflammation and missing six months. Phillie also got into five games late in the season.
Also, no big, but Montreal won the World Series, 4-1 over the Indians.
2000: On Opening Day, Angel, Phillie, Red Sock, and White Sock were all on MLB rosters, although Angel was still expected to miss 8 weeks with his injury. Marlin, Oriole, and Red Sock all have five-star potential, while Ranger is at the bottom with 1.5 stars. Every CC is in A ball or higher.
On July 21, CC turned 20 years old, and 14 of him had made the Majors.
Dodger was NL Rookie of the Month in June, and Royal took home AL honors in August. By the end of the season, 17 CCs had appeared in the Majors, with Dodger clearly standing out as the best. He had a 2.51 ERA in 111.1 IP and a 2.4 WAR. Rockie also managed a 1+ WAR, 1.3, tossing 79.1 innings to the tune of a 4.08 ERA – not bad for early-century Coors. Dodger and Royal became the first CCs to make their postseason debuts.
https://i.imgur.com/rtjN46q.jpg
2001: On April 8, 2001, the real CC Sabathia made his Major League debut. In my sim, 17 CCs were on MLB rosters on that date. 10 were at AAA, and the other three, including the original, were at AA. Two of them had even somehow grown an inch!
https://i.imgur.com/nndCYBs.jpg
White Sock finished third in the AL in wins (17) and had the highest MLB WAR (4.3) of all the CCs. Dodger (3.7), Cardinal (3.6), and Rockie (3.5) all turned in solid seasons, too. Every CC is still with his original franchise, except for the aforementioned Indian.
2002: On Opening Day, 24 of 30 CCs are in the Majors. Five more are at AAA, and poor Ranger is at A. He does not look good.
https://i.imgur.com/NYgDMNQ.jpg
On July 27, Cub was traded to Atlanta. He only appeared in four games for Atlanta's AAA club, notching a 9.64 ERA in 4.2 IP. Only he, Athletic, and Ranger failed to pitch in the Majors at some point during the season.
Dodger led with 5.4 WAR, followed close behind my Marlin's 5.3. 13 CCs managed a 2.0 WAR or better.
2003: On May 10, Red wrote himself into the record books, twirling a perfect game against the Brewers.
https://i.imgur.com/OxLeo7C.jpg
12 CCs exceeded 200 IP on the season, led by Red and his 249.1 IP. He led the NL with a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Four of the top seven ERAs in the Majors were CCs. Brave and Dodger each had 20 wins, tied for the MLB lead with Boston's Pedro Martinez and Houston's Johan Santana. Marlin had the best WAR among CCs, leading the pack with 7.2.
The season took a toll, though. By the end of the year, five CCs were on the injured list with ailments that would keep them sidelined for at least six more months. Red Sock had also went down with a torn UCL (12-13 months) before the season began.
The NL Cy Young voting results were: 1. Red; 4. Marlin; 5. Dodger; 7. Brave; 10. Brewer.
Now that most of the “firsts” are out of the way, I'll speed things up a bit.
July 20, 2004: Phillie is traded to Pittsburgh.
Nov. 9, 2004: Royal wins the AL Cy Young Award. Mark Prior wins the NL award, edging Marlin, who had an outstanding 8.2 WAR and 2.74 ERA … but an 11-17 record, tied for the most losses in the league.
Nov. 19, 2004: Ranger and Athletic are released. They're the only two CCs not to have made the Majors.
Dec. 5, 2004: Houston signs White Sock to a three-year, $5,940,000 deal to be its closer. He's got 59 saves in his career (27 last year) but a so-so 4.33 ERA.
Opening Day, 2005: Only Athletic is unemployed. He eventually found work in Tampa Bay's minors.
June 11, 2005: Marlin agrees to an extension with Florida to the tune of 6 years and $138,600,000.
Sept. 6, 2005: This time it was Royal's turn to pitch a perfecto, this one against the White Sox. Both perfect games have been 1-0 affairs.
https://i.imgur.com/y5L74VM.jpg
Sept. 10, 2006: Phillie and Red Sock are the top two vote-getters for best pitcher of the year … in the AZL.
End of 2006: Oriole led the AL in ERA (2.86) and K's (202) and took home the Cy Young Award. Marlin's WAR his last four years: 6.8, 7.9, 8.2, 8.1. He's a three-time All-Star, but hasn't taken home any hardware.
Nov. 25, 2006: We get our first big-money free agent deal, as Dodger signs with Texas for 6 years and $132 million. He has a 103-59 career record, 3.21 ERA, and 32.9 WAR at age 26, but he put up a 4.64 ERA in his first year with his new team.
2008: 10 years in, and every CC is still active, though two (Athletic and Ranger) are unemployed. Colorado and Cincinnati each have three CCs in their organizations: two in the Majors and one in the Minors. Brewer and Marlin are each 4.5 stars, still with potential to reach 5. There are still two at 6'8”, and their weights range from 270 (Devil Ray) to 295 (Blue Jay) lbs.
Top 10 Career WAR: Marlin: 39.9 Dodger: 36.6 Oriole: 35.1 Brewer: 34.4 Red: 31.4 Royal: 28.6 Diamondback: 23.3 Cardinal: 21.7 Giant: 20.9 Devil Ray: 18.7
14 CCs spent 2007 as full-time starters, 3 more started and relieved, and 9 didn't start a game at the ML level. White Sock led the group with 34 saves (nobody else had more than 2) for Tampa Bay, while Twin has made 80, 77, and 90 relief appearances his last three years – with ERAs of 5.27, 4.48, and 6.47.
Brewer (1.81) and Marlin (1.98) finished 1-2 in the NL ERA race, while Red (7.9), Brewer (6.9), and Diamondback (6.2) were 1-2-3 in pitcher WAR. That was especially impressive for Brewer, who suffered a torn labrum on Aug. 11 that would knock him out of action for nine months. Red won the Cy Young Award.
In the 2009 offseason, Met made the surprising choice to slim down. He just signed a three-year deal with Tampa Bay and reported to camp at 235 pounds, making him the lightest CC by 35 lbs. I have to say, I didn't even know an event like this existed.
https://i.imgur.com/4bKRDzG.jpg
His ERAs during those three years: 4.68, 4.43, and 4.32. Maybe he should put the pounds back on.
Oct. 13, 2009: Athletic became the first CC to retire. He spent 2009 with the Single-A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, putting up a 4.13 ERA in 93.2 IP. He topped out at AAA in 2000-2002, and only even had five appearances at AA after that.
Opening Day, 2010: Here's a look at everyone's contract status going into the season:
https://i.imgur.com/J9DStqb.jpg
Aug. 4, 2011: Red followed up his 7-year, $115.9 million deal with Cincinnati by signing a 5-year, $107m extension.
Nov. 26, 2011: Brewer signed with the Chicago Cubs for 6 years and $170.4 million. His WHIPs the past nine years: 1.07, 0.95, 1.08, 1.05, 1.05, 0.83, 0.90, 0.94, 0.92. He celebrated by tearing the meniscus in his knee during Spring Training, which sidelined him for three months. He did OK that first year, again notching a solid WHIP (1.02) but declined after that.
June 28, 2012: Marlin, who's had a very good career with Florida (59.1 WAR) but suffered from numerous injuries (currently Wrecked) was traded to San Diego. He helped the Padres to a 100-win season, but they got bounced from the playoffs in the first round by the 97-win Diamondbacks.
2013, 15 years in:
https://i.imgur.com/GRCnPWr.jpg
Injuries are starting to take their toll on the CCs, as six are Fragile and one Wrecked. Still, 20 start the season in the Majors, while three are retired. And yes, Met is still (relatively) slender. Only six are still with their original franchises: Red, Brave, Royal, Blue Jay, Diamondback, and Devil Ray.
Top 10 Career WAR: Brewer: 62.9 Marlin: 60.6 Oriole: 60.0 Red: 59.6 Dodger: 57.0 Royal: 43.7 Diamondback: 42.9 Giant: 38.8 Brave: 32.0 Blue Jay: 31.4
By the end of the season, four more CCs had retired, bringing the total to seven.
Nov. 11, 2015: Red re-ups again with Cincinnati for two years. He's still effective at 35, putting up WARs of 4.0 and 4.6 the past two seasons.
Opening Day, 2016: Only 11 CCs remain in the Majors. Two are in AAA, and the rest are retired.
Opening Day, 2017: Dodger also shed some weight, dropping to 230 lbs. He's now the lightest CC.
July 13, 2017: It's the end of an era, as Cincinnati ships Red off to Detroit for a package including Shane Bieber.
Opening Day, 2018: 20 years in, and only two CCs – Brave (with Arizona) and Dodger (with Atlanta) – remained in the Majors. Red was active but unemployed. Dodger just signed a three-year deal (two plus one vesting) for $21 million per year, so it seems like that he, at least, will last as long as the real CC, who retired after 2019. Brave is on the second of a two-year deal that pays him just over a million per year.
Unfortunately, Dodger suffered a broken elbow in June, costing him the rest of his season. Brave was waived by Arizona, claimed by Cincinnati, and then traded to San Diego during the season. Red latched on with Anaheim and pitched decently – 4.29 ERA in 27 starts, 1.4 WAR – but went down in September and underwent Tommy John surgery. Amazingly, he came back from it and pitched for New York and Boston (poorly) in 2019.
Sept. 24, 2019 was the last day the real CC threw a pitch, but all three of Brave, Dodger, and Red persevered beyond that point. Dodger (247) has come close to matching the real CC's win total (251). Red retired after the playoffs ended.
2020: At the age of 39, Dodger and Brave are both still 3* pitchers. They're also two of the three lightest CCs, weighing in at 225 (Dodger) and 240 (Brave), so maybe there's a correlation between durability/career longevity and weight? Brave, who's been a reliever since 2012, put up a 4.59 ERA for St. Louis in 86.1 IP, while Dodger battled injuries and only made 13 starts, with a 4.19 ERA in 62.1 IP. In other “old pitcher” news, 34-year-old Felix Hernandez led the NL with 18 wins, pitching for Colorado. Oh, and the Orioles won the 2020 World Series, just like in real life, right?
2021: Approaching 41 years of age, Dodger and Brave soldier on, each losing an additional five pounds and pitching on one-year deals for Arizona and Boston, respectively. Dodger pitched pretty well – 3.09 ERA, 1.7 WAR – though injuries (he's now Wrecked) took their toll and he only made 21 starts. Brave lasted just nine games for Boston before being cut and picked up by the Chicago Cubs' AAA team. At both stops, he had a sub-2.00 ERA. The Orioles won the World Series again.
2022: Brave started the season pitching for the Cubs' AA affiliate. He got into 53 games, posting a 4.42 ERA and 26 saves. His WAR was -1.8 and he retired on Sept. 14.
Dodger, who had injury issues but was still a 2.5* pitcher, began the season unemployed. He signed a minor-league deal with Cleveland and made 15 appearances at A and AAA before retiring on Sept. 25 at the age of 42 years and 66 days. And with that, all CCs were out of baseball.
https://i.imgur.com/hvuzPL8.jpg
Other notes
Only one CC, Dodger, made the Hall of Fame, squeaking in with 76% of the vote in his first year of eligibility, 2021. His numbers: 3902.1 IP, 259-190, 3.57 ERA, 82.3 WAR.
Other CCs to receive Hall of Fame votes:
Red: 52.9, 52.0, 48.5, 40.3, 37.3, 42.2, 44.7, 37.9, 30.7, 27.7 Brewer: 56.4, 50.0, 57.0, 44.5, 43.9, 33.8, 34.1, 24.3, 26.3, 15.7 Marlin: 30.3, 39.9, 20.8, 30.4, 13.4, 20.5, 7.0, 10.2, 3.9 Oriole: 36.9, 35.8, 22.3, 23.1, 11.9, 12.8, 7.5, 5.8, 3.8 Royal: 26.3, 14.4, 11.3, 5.8, 6.4, 3.8 Diamondback: 6.9, 5.9, 1.5 Brave: 3.8 White Sock: 3.8 Cardinal: 1.7 Devil Ray: 1.1 Giant: 1.1
Other player notes
Cubs fans will be pleased to know that Kerry Wood stayed healthy throughout his career and pitched 3546.2 innings, making the Hall in 2021.
https://i.imgur.com/JuU6Bnd.jpg
A player with the initials J.M. who came up with the real-life Twins in the early 2000s made the Hall of Fame as a catcher. That was, of course, Justin Morneau.
https://i.imgur.com/IPB2Ya1.jpg
And then there's this guy. In real life, he's a lefty pitcher with an 8.18 ERA. In my sim, however...
https://i.imgur.com/xqz33JP.jpg
But he dropped off a cliff at age 34 and was unable to catch up with the all-time home run leader: the immortal Mitch Levier!
https://i.imgur.com/kPTCtoO.jpg
Other unexpected HOF players in my sim included Kelly Johnson, Brett Bonvechio, and Scott Schebler (who?). Meanwhile, Sean Rodriguez hit 81 HR in real life and 535 HR in my sim.
I messed up the sim at some point, maybe in the late 2010s, which seemed to make it so that no new players entered the league. Hence, by the late 2020s, when I was just checking for CC's HOF chances, most everyone in the league was in their 30s or early 40s, so those guys were playing against some very subpar pitching late in their careers. Still, it's amazing to see how different a sim can go versus real life.
Conclusion
Which brings us to CC Sabathia. You can see the full spreadsheet of results here (ML stats only). Real-life CC had a 62.0 WAR; only 6 of the 30 in my sim managed 50 or better, so you could say that only about 20% approached the long and successful career of the real thing.
I think that says something about players with long careers. If you have the talent, the potential is always there, but you need good players and coaches around you and probably more than a little luck to last 15+ years. (Just look at Kerry Wood.) When he started his career in 1998, maybe CC only had about a 20% chance of becoming the pitcher that he did. Things fell mostly right for him, and he was successful.
As I look at the latter part of my HOF voting in the 2030s, mostly for guys who started their careers around the same time as CC, so they were completely represented in this sim, it's a mix of guys who are/were good/great (like Justin Morneau), as well as some who definitely weren't (like Kelly Johnson) and some I've never heard of (Bonvechio/Schebler). OOTP isn't a perfect simulation of real life, but I think it shows that greatness has many factors, and the ones who come out on top deserve both respect for their abilities but also have the benefit of good fortune and timing.

The Houston Astros: A Legacy of Misery

Better Know the Ones Left Off the Ballot #3: Dan Uggla

And we're back. 2 down, 37 (jeez) to go. To help with that, and to celebrate the symposium, I'm considering posting two of these tomorrow. Randy Choate and Kevin Gregg have been given their due, now onto our next vict- person of interest.

Dan Uggla

Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 35 Career bWAR (10 years): 18.2 Stats: .241/.336/.447, 107 OPS+, 1149 H, 235 HR, 491 XBH, 706 RBI, 759 R League Leading Stats: Walks (94, 2012), Errors committed as 2B 2x (18, 2010 | 15, 2011) Awards: All-Star 3x (2006, 2008, 2012), Silver Slugger (2010), 2006 June NL Rookie of the Month, 2011 August NL Player of the Month Teams Played For: Marlins (2006-10), Braves (2011-14), Giants (2014), Nationals (2015)
Daniel Cooley Uggla. An unusual name for an unusual player. His career was simultaneously totally ignorable and definitely abnormal. As a result, his name couldn't be more appropriate. Daniel is as run-of-the-mill a man's name as you can get, while Uggla is a quite uncommon Swedish noble family name, meaning "owl." Bet if you met a guy named Timmy Penguin you wouldn't forget that moniker anytime soon. But just how uncommon was his career? Well, only 16 second basemen have over 200 career home runs. Some Hall-of-Famers got there just by playing for a long time, like Joe Morgan, Roberto Alomar, and Craig Biggio. Hall members with a bit of pop like Ryne Sandberg and Bobby Doerr got there by consistently putting up dingers. Same is true of non-Hall members like Jeff Kent and Robby Cano. And then, in 12th place on the all-time leaderboard, above 15 people with plaques, there's Owlboy. How did he get there?
Following an impressive career at the University of Memphis, the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Dan Uggla in the 11th round of the 2001 draft. His next three years would be spent bouncing between A and A+, going from 5 homers and a .608 OPS in his first full season to 23 homers and a .859 OPS in his second. Birdman finally put it all together in 2004 where he was slashing .336/.422/.600 after 37 games in A+, and got promoted to AA, where he cooled off to finish the year with an OPS of .774 across both leagues. In 2005, his first full season in AA, he'd be much more productive, as he socked 21 dingers and slashed .297/.378/.502. This caused buzz, and led some to believe he might be a top 10 Dbacks prospect despite his 25 years of age. That December was the Rule 5 Draft, where teams are allowed to select any minor league player with more than 4 years experience not on a Major League team's 40-man roster. The Diamondbacks made the mistake of leaving Uggla exposed after his 4th year in the minors, and with the 8th pick, the Florida Marlins snatched him up like he was a mouse in the dead of night. Good news for Uggla: the team had to keep him on their 25-man roster for the entire year or he'd go back to Arizona. Bad news: This was the Florida Marlins in the midst of a market correction.
For those of you familiar, the 2005 offseason was not a good time to be a Marlins fan. Before Derek Jeter retired and moved to Florida, the owner of the baseball team bearing the state's name was a man by the name of Jeffrey Loria. Well, I say "man," but "selfish hobgoblin" would probably be more accurate. The end of the 2005 season saw his team tragically go from 78-67 and a wild card spot to 83-79 and out of the playoffs. Upon the conclusion of that season, Loria made his fiendishly egocentric intentions clear: he wanted a new stadium. For as long as the Marlins had existed, they had shared a stadium with the Miami Dolphins. Loria didn't like sharing, so he gave a mandate to the local government: use tax dollars to build my stadium, or next year, the team will suck. If there was no stadium deal, he would begin to eviscerate the team's payroll, trading big names for no-names. In case you didn't know, stadiums are expensive, and the city didn't have a spare $150 million lying around, so they said no. Loria kept his promise. Carlos Delgado, one year removed from signing the largest contract in team history and recent top-5 MVP vote getter, was shipped to the Mets for pennies on the dollar. Starting catcher Paul Lo Duca joined him shortly thereafter. Stalwart rotation arm Josh Beckett and dependable third baseman Mike Lowell shipped off to Boston. Juan Pierre was dealt to the Cubs. Luis Castillo got a ticket to Minnesota. Nine players who all contributed to the team that was in a playoff spot within twenty games of the season's end were effectively shown the door when they didn't receive arbitration offers. When asked if these actions constituted a fire sale, Loria said he preferred to think of it as a "market correction." He was wrong. This was not a valuation adjustment of his baseball team. This was a billionaire throwing a fit because the city wouldn't give him his own sandbox where he could play with his toys. And so, if one toddler couldn't play where he wanted, nobody got to play at all. When the flames died down, the total payroll for Loria's team's entire roster was $21 million. That was less money than Alex Rodriguez would be making that year by himself. Starting pitchers Dontrelle Willis and Brian Moehler were the only two Marlins whose paychecks required a second comma. The only meaningful names left on the team were Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Florida's 2006 Opening Day lineup had 6 players who had played in 83 MLB games combined prior to that day. No, not their Opening Day roster, their Opening Day lineup. And who do you think might be starting at second base, batting sixth? Why, it's a little 26-year-old Rule 5 draft pick with a funny looking last name.
Uggla's MLB debut saw him go 0-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout. I mean, can you really say you expect more from a guy who just got supplanted from AA? His first hit came in the next game, and his first home run came in game number eight against Dewon Brazelton. Sidenote, Dan Uggla no longer has the funniest name in this post. Great Horned Daniel did all right for himself after that slow start, batting .305/.362/.467 after the first month and a half of the season. Problem was, everyone else on the team did all wrong for themselves. The Marlins were 11-31. And really, given what they were working with, can you blame them? The next month after that start, though, saw Uggla wake himself and the rest of the team up. Florida went 19-6 in their next 25 games, and Uggla contributed massively over that span, batting .327/.374/.643 with 7 homers, 22 RBIs, and 20 runs. Despite missing 8 games following that run, given that hitting line, it shouldn't surprise anyone that he was voted June's NL Rookie of the Month. Better yet, his excellent hitting at a position where Chase Utley was considered a power bat got our owly friend selected to the All-Star game as a reserve. Uggla didn't end up playing in the game, and cooled off a bit after that, but didn't ever go entirely cold. In fact, in a game on September 11 against the Mets, he had 5 hits, one home run, and saw his team win 16-5. That win brought the Marlins to a record of 73-71. They had successfully gone from 20 games under .500 to a winning record in a single season, the first MLB team to ever accomplish such a feat. Sadly, Florida would once again have a season-ending slump, losing 13 of their last 18 in an eerily similar streak to 2005. However, the 78-84 record where they ended the season had so much more poured into it than the final result could ever tell. Our nocturnal feathered Dan did more than his share, hitting .282/.339/.480 with 27 home runs and 90 RBIs on the year. Uggla deservedly received 6 first-place votes for NL Rookie of the Year, ultimately losing to his teammate Hanley Ramirez, and finishing ahead of his other teammates Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, and Josh Willingham. Six players from a single team all getting votes for Rookie of the Year is almost certainly never going to happen again, so congrats to Hootie and the Swordfish for making history. All the success aside, questions arose about how effective he'd be in the long-term. Could Uggla keep it up, or had the clock struck midnight on this Rule 5 pick's Cinderowla story? Here's a hint: even if the clock's struck midnight, owls are nocturnal.
The next four years, Uggla retained the Marlins' starting second base position, and showed the first season was far from a fluke. 27 homers, the most he'd ever hit in a season up to that point, turned out to be the lowest number he'd have in Florida. 2007 through 2009 saw Uggla sock 31, 32, and 31 dingers. The lowest OPS he'd have over that span was .805, and his lowest RBI total was 88. Both came in 2007, when he was the number 2 hitter, but a move down the lineup to number 5 the next year saw him flourish. He was so good in 2008, he got another trip to the All-Star Game! And he actually played in this one! We don't have to talk about how he did, do we? Can we ignore the record he set with three errors in that game and the three strikeouts and GIDP he had at the plate? Cool thanks moving on. As for his time in Florida, 2010 was definitely the peak for Dan for Owl Seasons (Shakespeare pun, might be reaching). While he may not have been voted to the All-Star game, he more than made up for it, slashing .287/.369/.508, with 105 RBIs, and a 131 OPS+. All of those stats were career highs. Not satisfied with only five of those happening that year, he tacked on one more: 33 home runs. That number did several things for him. It put him atop the Marlins' career home run leaderboard with 154. It made him the first second baseman in Major League history to hit 30 or more home runs in four straight seasons. It notched him that year's Silver Slugger. It got him onto more than a couple NL MVP ballots. What it also did, though, was make him valuable. He rejected a 4-year, $48-million extension from the Marlins, who had just finished the season 80-82, out of playoff contention for the seventh straight year. Despite his fantastic batting numbers, Owld Dang Syne had never played in a playoff game. Perhaps that was part of his motivation for rejecting the largest contract the Marlins had ever offered to a second baseman. And so, the offseason after his best season in the Majors, Dan Uggla was traded to the Atlanta Braves for utility player Omar Infante and left-handed reliever Mike Dunn. In defiance of his avian peers, that winter saw this Owl fly north.
Once Uggla was perched upon the position of second base in Atlanta, that necessitated a move for Martin Prado, an All-Star the previous year who finished above Uggla in MVP voting. An interesting choice, certainly, but Prado had shown range at other defensive positions that Uggla hadn't. The thing was, even then, Uggla wasn't exactly the best fielder at second either. In 2010, the same year he set a bunch of career bests at the plate, Owlfred Dannyworth led the league in Errors with 18. And instead of regularly great shortstop Hanley Ramirez, this year he'd be paired with 34-year-old Alex Gonzalez. How did that turn out? Could've been better. Uggla did achieve a new high for home runs with 36, incidentally making him the only second baseman to hit 30 home runs in five straight seasons. Everything else, not so much. A season after Uggla's average, on-base, and slugging had all reached new career highs, all of them hit new career lows, with .233/.311/.453. Not awful, but definitely not what was expected of him at this point. That was bolstered by a fantastic August, where he hit .340/.405/.670 with 10 home runs en route to his second NL Player of the Month award. Thing is, he led the league in errors again and had a career low -1.2 dWAR. And he was turning 32 next season. Did I mention the Braves had just signed him for 5 years and $62 million? Because... uh oh. Things began to look up the next year, as the first half saw Owl Pacino garner some newfound fielding skills, and his hitting seemed to be improving, peaking at .276/.384/.492 in early June. He earned his third trip to the All-Star game, which didn't go nearly as bad as his last outing. He actually started the game this time! Nice going Dan! Good sign of things to come! Right? Well, offensively, 2012 turned out to be one of Uggla's worst seasons yet. He struggled late into the season, finishing at .220/.348/.384. While those are new career lows in average and slugging, the on-base is helped by a league-leading 94 walks. This marked the first time Uggla finished a season with fewer than 20 home runs (19), an OPS+ below 100 (98), and fewer than 250 total bases (201). There was one good thing that happened to Pasta Owl Dan-te: his team reached the playoffs! His Braves were a wild card team! And it was 2012! And the infield fly rule existed! Oh... wait... let's move on. The rest of his time in Atlanta went about as well as that playoff run did. The next year, his batting average spent a total of about three weeks above the Mendoza line. Even with 22 home runs that's just not okay. Combine that with a return to normalcy in the field, two more career low years for on-base and slugging, and a tied career high strikeout total at 171, and you have what we call a bad season. How's that contract looking now? Two more years? Sounds great! After the first couple months of 2014 saw Uggla's numbers headed for the fourth straight year of new career worsts in every hitting category, the Braves began to explore other options at second base. When Tommy La Stella began showing promise in the middle of the summer, Atlanta decided to cut their losses, and let the Owl fly free on July 18th. Dan Uggla was now 34 years old, coming off a steady decline in production that showed no signs of slowing, and was named Dan Uggla. How would he get out of this one?
While there may have been a significant downturn in I'm-running-out-of-owl-puns's production as of late, he still played second base okay. One team that needed someone who could do that in late July of 2014 was the San Francisco Giants. After the great Marco Scutaro went down with an injury early in the year, band-aids like Ehire Adrianza and Brandon Hicks just hadn't been cutting it. Rookie Joe Panik had come up in the last month, but his bat didn't look amazing. And so, at the time, it made sense for them to pick up someone like Uggla, with a proven track record and history of a nice bat as a 2B. And so, on July 21, the Nocturnal Flying Animal (I'm running on fumes here) signed a minor league deal, and three days later, joined the Giants dugout. After going 0-for-12 with one walk at the plate and committing two errors in the field in his next four games, The Giants realized they'd made a mistake, and cut [insert owl joke here] from the roster. They stuck with Panik for the rest of the year, and whataya know they won the World Series, leading to half the comments on this post reading simply "World Series Champion Dan Uggla." Congrats on the ring man! Er, owl! (Help.) His last year of Major League play was spent as a Washington Nationowl, (please tell me we're almost done) where he served primarily as a pinch-hitter and backup second baseman behind Danny Espinosa. He played in only 67 games, batted .183/.298/.300, and said his farewell that offseason at the age of 36. His last at-bat, on October 3rd, was a home run. The game was against the New York Mets, and happened to be the same game where Max Scherzer tossed a 17-strikeout 0-walk no-hitter. And frankly, if that's not the best way for this Owl to fly the coop, I don't know what is.
Dan Uggla's career really is unique. Maybe if Brian Dozier sticks around he could contest that fact, but other than him, there isn't really anyone. His journey to the MLB was unusual, his time there was unusual, the way he got his World Series ring was unusual, and in case you can't tell I've run out of owl puns so I'm pretty much cooked. The man had a weird career, what else can I say. His place on the ballot would have been similar to that of Adam Dunn's, but given that he was only unusual and not a freak outlier, I can see why they left him off. Oh, and in case it wasn't clear, Giancarlo Stanton broke his Marlins home run record, though he's the only second baseman save Rogers Hornsby to lead a franchise in homers for that long in the history of Major League Baseb-owl (okay that was truly awful I really need to stop).
Dan Uggla would visit the Hall of Fame in a Marlins cap for his two All-Star selections, 154 home runs, and 15.7 bWAR with them. I would make an owl pun here but as previously mentioned I don't have any more.

Game Preview Week 15 Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-6)

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) vs Arizona Cardinals (7-6)

The Jalen Hurts era started in Philly with a bang as the Eagles knocked off the number 1 seed Saints being a strong rushing attack led by Hurts and Miles Sanders. The defense was the real winner in this game as they completely shut down the Saints offense for most of the game. But the win came at a cost, Rodney McLeod tore his MCL and will be out for the season and a number of other defenders left the game and will be questionable going into the game this week. The Eagles also lost starting RT Jack Driscoll for the remainder of the season to a MCL sprain.The Eagles with their rookie QB at the helm will travel to Arizona this week to take on the Arizona Cardinals who need a win to stay close in the playoff hunt. The loss of McLeod will be felt as the Cardinals come in with an impressive passing attack led by Kylar Murray and WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. Jim Schwartz will need to come up with a game plan to shutdown the Cardinals big time WRs with a banged up secondary. At the same time they will need to slow down the Cardinals running game where Murray is also dangerous, but Kenyon Drake is the real threat. The Eagles will also unfortunately still be fighting for a playoff spot by winning the NFCE shitpile, but will be eliminated this week with a Washington win and an Eagles loss. Here is to an injury free game.

General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to Join us on Discord during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest

Date
Sunday December 20th, 2020

Game Time	Game Location
4:05 PM - Eastern	State Farm Stadium
3:05 PM - Central	1 Cardinals Drive
2:05 PM - Mountain	Glendale, AZ 85305
1:05 PM - Pacific	Wikipedia - Map

Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 61°F
Feels Like: 61°F
Forecast: Clear. Clear throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 0%
Wind: 3mi East MPH

Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Arizona -6.5
OveUnder: 49
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 5-8, Cardinals 6-7

Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Monday’s game to a national audience. Brandon Gaudin will handle play-by-play duties and Aqib Talib will provide analysis.
Week 15 TV Map

Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming

Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	WIP-FM	94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA	WCTO-FM	96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey	WENJ-FM	97.3 FM
Levittown, PA	WBCB-AM	1490 AM
Northumberland, PA	WEGH-FM	107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA	WPPA-AM	1360 AM
Reading, PA	WEEU-AM	830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA	WEJL-FM	96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WEJL-AM	630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WBAX-AM	1240 AM
Williamsport, PA	WBZD-FM	93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE	WDEL-FM/AM	101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA	WSOX-FM	96.1 FM

Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	LA MEGA	105.7 FM
Allentown, PA	WSAN	1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ	WIBG	1020 AM; 101.3 FM

Cardinals Radio
Arizona Sports (98.7 FM) is the flagship station of the Cardinals Radio Network.Dave Pasch handles the play-by-play duties, Cardinals FB Ron Wolfley provides color commentary for the Cardinals.

National Radio
NA

Satellite Radio

Station	Eagles Channel	Cardinals Channel
Sirius Radio	SIRI 138(Streaming 825)	SIRI 81(Streaming 800)
XM Radio	XM 381 (Streaming 825)	(XM 226 (Streaming 800)
Sirus XM Radio	SXM 381 (Streaming 825)	SXM 226(Streaming 800)

Eagles Social Media	Cardinals Social Media
Website	[Website](https://www.azcardinals.com/
Facebook	Facebook
Twitter	Twitter
Instagram	Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles	Snapchat: SnapAZCardinals

NFC East Standings

NFC EAST	Record	PCT	Home	Road	Div	Conf	PF	PA	Net Pts	Streak
Football Team	6-7	.462	3-3	3-4	3-2	4-5	287	275	12	4W
Giants	5-8	.385	2-4	3-4	3-2	4-6	238	291	-53	1L
Eagles	4-8-1	.346	3-3-1	1-5	2-2	4-5	277	328	-51	1W
Cowboys	4-8	.308	2-4	2-5	1-3	3-6	298	400	-102	1W

Series Information
The Arizona/St.Louis/Chicago Cardinals lead the Philadelphia Eagles (59-57-5)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
November 10, 1935 at Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL. Chicago Cardinals 12 - Philadelphia Eagles 3
Points Leader
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the Arizona/St.Louis/Chicago Cardinals (719-680)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-0 vs. the Cardinals
Kliff Kingsbury: 0-0 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Pederson vs Kingsbury: First Meeting of the coaches.
Quarterback Record
Jalen Hurts: Against Cardinals 0-0
Kylar Murrayl: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Jalen Hurts vs Kylar Murray: This will be the first matchup between the QBs in the NFL
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead: 3-2
Record @ State Farm Stadium: Cardinals leads series: 3-0

Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 23 - Cardinals No. 14
2020 Record
Eagles: 4-8-1
Cardinals 7-6
Last Meeting
Sunday, October 8th, 2017
Eagles 34 - Cardinals 7
The Eagles scored early and often in this game, for their first blowout win of the season against the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Wentz found tight ends Trey Burton and Zach Ertz for early touchdowns, and later connected with wide receiver Torrey Smith for a 59-yard touchdown to finish the first quarter. Following Smith's touchdown, the Eagles unveiled their baseball home run celebration for the first time all season. The closest the Cardinals came was in the second quarter when they trailed 21–7 following a John Brown 13-yard touchdown. In the mid third quarter, on 3rd and 19, Wentz found wide receiver Nelson Agholor for a 72-yard touchdown pass, on which Agholor juked rookie safety Budda Baker and finished the play with the Nestea Plunge. The final score was 34–7, and Wentz threw for four touchdowns, including three first quarter touchdown passes.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here for box score

Last 10 Meetings

Date	Winner	Loser	Score
10/08/17	Eagles	Cardinals	34-17
12/20/15	Cardinals	Eagles	40-17
10/26/14	Cardinals	Eagles	24-20
12/01/13	Eagles	Cardinals	24-21
09/23/12	Cardinals	Eagles	27-6
11/13/11	Cardinals	Eagles	21-17
01/18/09	Cardinals	Eagles	32-25
11/27/08	Eagles	Cardinals	48-20
12/24/05	Cardinals	Eagles	27-21
11/17/02	Eagles	Cardinals	38-14

Injury Reports	Depth Charts
Eagles	Eagles
Cardinals	Cardinals

2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 15 - "Expert" Picks

2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Cardinals Season Stats

2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)

Passing

Name	CMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Wentz	251	437	57.4%	2620	16	15	72.8
Hurts	25	45	55.6%	309	2	1	82.5
Murray	309	461	67.0%	3231	23	10	94.7

Rushing

Name	ATT	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Sanders	132	746	74.6	5.7	5
Drake	201	848	70.7	4.2	9

Receiving

Name	REC	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Fulgham	33	467	46.7	14.2	4
Hopkins	94	1155	88.8	12.3	5

Sacks

Name	Sacks	Team Total
Graham	7.0	43
Reddick	10	37

Tackles

Name	Total	Solo	Assist	Sacks
Singleton	87	55	32	1.0
Hicks	101	67	34	0.0

Interceptions

Name	Ints	Team Total
Singleton/McLeod/Mills/Riley	1	4
Peterson/Kirkpatrick	3	10

Punting

Name	ATT	YDS	LONG	AVG	NET	IN 20	TB	BP
Johnston	58	2794	66	48.2	42.5	20	4	0
Lee	45	1979	58	44.0	38.7	16	2	0

Kicking

Name	ATT	MADE	%	LONG	PAT
Elliot	18	13	72.2%	54	18/20
Gonzalez	22	16	72.7%	56	38/39
Nuggent	4	4	100.0%	56	2/2

Kick Returns

Name	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Scott	20	438	21.9	46	0
Edmonds	18	417	23.2	54	0

Punt Returns

Name	RET	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	FC
Ward	17	116	6.8	22	0	15
Kirk	20	132	6.6	24	0	6

League Rankings 2020

Offense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Cardinals Stat	Cardinals Rank
Total Offense	326.1	26th	389.5	4th
Rush Offense	126.2	9th	151.2	4th
Pass Offense	199.8	28th	238.2	18th
Points Per Game	21.3	26th(t)	27.5	10th
3rd-Down Offense	37.4%	28th	42.5%	14th
4th-Down Offense	37.0%	28th	70.6%	6th
Red Zone Offense (TD%)	61.1%	13th	68.8%	7th

Defense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Cardinals Stat	Cardinals Rank
Total Defence	347.9	14th	344.5	12th
Rush Defence	127.3	24th	119.5	18th
Pass Defence	220.6	9th	224.9	11th
Points Per Game	25.2	19th	23.3	13th
3rd-Down Defence	37.6%	9th	41.3%	16th
4th-Down Defence	37.5%	4th	62.5%	23rd(t)
Red Zone Defence(TD%)	66.7%	26th(t)	53.3%	6th

Team

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Cardinals Stat	Cardinals Rank
Turnover Diff.	-10	29th(t)	+3	12th(t)
Penalty Per Game	6.2	21st(t)	7.2	32nd
Penalty Yards Per Game	48.3	16th	55.9	24th

Connections
Cardinals MLB Jordan Hicks was drafted in the 3rd round in 2015 NFL Draft and played 4 seasons with the Eagles.
Cardinals LB Hassan Reddick is from Camden NJ, and attended college at Temple in Philadelphia.
Cardinals RB James Saxon played one season for the Eagles in 1995.
Cardinals LB Coach Billy Davis served as defensive coordinator of the Eagles from 2013-2015.
Eagles S Rudy Ford played two seasons with the Cardinals from 2017-2018.

2020 Pro Bowlers

Eagles	Cardinals
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)	WR DeAndre Hopkins(Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)	OLB Chandler Jones (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz	FS Budda Baker (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)

General
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Jalen Hurts started his first career game in Week 14 vs. New Or-leans, leading the Eagles to a 24-21 victory over the 10-2 Saints. Hurts, the Eagles’ youngest starting QB since Jack Concannon in 1964, became the second QB in NFL history to beat a team on a 9+ game winning streak in their starting debut, joining Ron Jawor-ski (12/20/75 vs. Pittsburgh with L.A. Rams - snapped Steelers’ 11-game streak). He also became the first NFL QB since 1950 to throw a TD pass and rush for 100+ yards in their first start.
Miles Sanders (746 rushing yards, 5 TDs), ranks 2nd among NFL RBs in rushing average (5.7), behind Nick Chubb (5.9) (min. 125 attempts). In Week 14 vs. New Orleans, Sanders recorded an 82-yard rushing TD, marking the 4th-longest rushing play in Eagles history. He is the first NFL RB with 3 rushes of 70+ yards in the same season since 2012, when Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson each accomplished the feat.
Philadelphia’s defense ranks 2nd in the NFL with 43.0 sacks, trail-ing only Pittsburgh (45.0). Since Week 10, Fletcher Cox ranks 1st among NFL DTs with 4.0 sacks, while Javon Hargrave is tied for 2nd with Aaron Donald and Leonard Williams with 3.5 sacks.
Dallas Goedert is one of three NFL TEs with 250+ receiving yards (261) and 2+ TDs (2) since Week 11, joining Travis Kelce (481 yards, 3 TDs) and Darren Waller (386 yards, 3 TDs).

Draft Picks

Eagles	Cardinals
WR Jalen Raegor	OLB Isiah Simmons
QB Jalen Hurts	OT Josh Jones
LB Davion Taylor	DT Leki Fotu
S K’Von Wallace	LB Kamal Martin
OT Jack Driscoll	DT Rashard Lawrence
WR John Hightower	LB Evan Weaver
LB Shaun Bradley	RB Eno Benjamin
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill

Notable Off-season Additions

Eagles	Cardinals
DT Javon Hargrave	WR DeAndre Hopkins
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman	DT Jordan Phillips
CB Darius Slay	LB Devon Kennard
	LB De’Vondre Campbell
	DT Trevon Coley

Notable Off-season Departures

Eagles	Cardinals
S Malcom Jenkins	RB David Johnson
CB Ronald Darby	DE Rodney Gunter
RB Jordan Howard	DT Cassius Marsh
WR Nelson Agholor	DT Zach Kerr
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai	DT Cararun Reid
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill	CB Bradon Williams
RB Darren Sproles	WR Pharoh Cooper
DT Timmy Jernigan	WR Damiere Byrd
LB Nigel Bradham	LB Joe Walker
	OT William Sweat

Milestones
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown
Eagles TE Zach Ertz needs 40 yards for 6000 career receiving yards.

Food for Thought
The 1948 Philadelphia Eagles-Chicago Cardinals Championship Bout

Eagles fans recall Super Bowl LII with wonder and relish in it. These days, that date seems so very long ago, but there was another magical Championship game I’d like to remind you of, as the Eagles and Cardinals face off (and the Northeast just got a snow dump), the Eagles’ first championship. Sure, this team the Eagles will face is not the Chicago Cardinals or the St. Louis Cardinals or the Phoenix Cardinals, but it’s the same franchise of course.
As far as snowy games, fans typically recall the Eagles’ fun snow game of 2013 against the Lions in which players made snow angels in the endzone, but there was an even more memorable one, one which Eagles RB Steve Van Buren didn’t even think was going to take place. With a blizzard harrowing Philadelphia: “I was sure they wouldn’t be able to play and went back to bed,” Van Buren told [Joe Jonas]. “Then, ‘Greasy’ (coach Earle Neale) called and told me the game was on and to get a move on. I had to take a trolley, then the El, and then a second trolley. When that trolley bogged down in the snow, I had to walk down Lehigh Avenue through the drifts about two miles to the park. I got there just a couple of minutes before the kickoff.” source. Van Buren and the Eagles proceeded to run amok all over the Cardinals that fateful day.
Where the Cardinals managed 34 rushes for 96 yards, Van Buren led the Eagles to a 57 for 225 line day (let’s disregard Eagles QB Tommy Thompson stumbling toward a 0.0 passer rating: 2/12 for 7 yards and 2 INTs). Despite the Eagles controlling the game--in fact, the Eagles scored on the 1st play of the game, but it was called back for Offsides--it wasn’t until a minute left in the 4th that either team scored, a 5 yard rush by Van Buren. In victory, the Eagles exacted revenge on the Cardinals for losing the championship matchup the year prior 28-21.

Matchups to Watch
Arizona rushing attack vs the Eagles front seven
The Eagles have repeatedly struggled this season with teams who have mobile quarterbacks, who are able to escape the pocket. They did well last week against Taysom Hill, however this week they will take on Kylar Murray who is a lot closer to Lamar Jackson than Taysom Hill. The Eagles gave up 100 yards and a TD when they faced Jackson this season.again Like Jackson, Kylar Murray has the ability to break off big runs, as he is second to Jackson in rushing yards by a QB this season. Murray has over 700 rushing yards and a league leading 10 rushing TDs by a QB this season. Pair that with the impressive running attack of Kenyon Drake and the Eagles front seven will have their hands full on Sunday. With a talented receiving corp of the Cardinals the Eagles will not be able to stack the box and it will be on the front seven to keep contain and stay in the lanes to keep Murray and Drake in check. If they don’t and allow the Cardinals to establish the run look for the Cardinals to pound the run and look for a big play off play-action to one of their talented WRs.
Eagles banged up secondary vs the talented receiving corp of the Cardinals
In their win over the Saints, the Eagles lost their two best players in the secondary in safety Rodney McLeod and CB Darius Slay. McLeod unfortunately tore his MCL and will miss the remainder of the season and Slay suffered a concussion and while he has progressed through the protocol he has not been cleared as of the time of this writing. If Slay misses the game the Eagles will most likely lean on Avonte Maddox to cover All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins which is not good news for the Eagles. Last time the Maddox was asked to cover an All-Pro he was absolutely torched by Davante Adams. Hopkins is also questionable for the game, but is trending towards playing.Eagles DC Jim Schwartz will need to get creative with his coverages and hope his front four can continue to wreak havoc like they did last week where Hill was under constant pressure. If given time, Murray will cut up this secondary and have some big plays against the Eagles backups.
Jalen Hurts and Doug Pederson vs Vance Joseph
Cardinals’ defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will have the job of stopping the Eagles rookie QB who ran all over the Saints number one ranked defense last week. Doug Pederson said earlier this week that the Eagles simply shot themselves in the foot in the second half against the Saints, but rewatching the game it looks like the Saints made some adjustments at halftime that were effective in slowing down and confusing the rookie QB. Unlike the Saints, Joseph will have a full game tape to review and prepare for Hurts. Of course, Pederson and Eagles know what they put out on film too and will have to adjust to how they played in the second half against the Saints. It’ll be up to them to have a counterpunch ready to go depending on how the Cardinals play the rookie quarterback. Hurts was far more effective with his legs than his arm against the Saints, so I would not be surprised to see Joseph put a spy on Hurts to limit his ability to run. If the Cardinals do spy him, it will most likely go to former Eagles Jordan Hicks who is extremely athletic for an LB and should be able to match Hurts speed and athleticism. With the spy that’s one less player in coverage, which should open some up some things in the passing game if Hurts can take advantage of it. The Eagles have a lot of offensive coaches on the staff and it is their job to put him in the best position to be successful, but that is something they have failed to do with a number of guys on the offense this year, so it remains to see if they can do it with Hurts when the other team is gameplanning for him. If they can and that is a big IF Hurts will still need to execute and continue to show the same poise he did last weekend.

Special thanks to abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.

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